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03 Oct 2026
Displaced families fleeing the Sudan Kordofan conflict

Drones Fall, Towns Empty: Sudan’s Kordofan War Escalates

Categories World

The Sudan Kordofan conflict has escalated sharply in central Sudan, with the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces both deploying drones in growing numbers and civilians fleeing several towns. In the most recent escalation, reported in late September 2026, the Sudanese Armed Forces shot down a drone near the town of Bara in North Kordofan, the second such interception within a week. RSF fighters forced thousands of residents out of Hamrat al-Sheikh, Al-Mazroub and Umm Badr. Aid workers also reported collapsing food supplies and surging prices across West Kordofan state, citing RSF blockades, according to Sudan Tribune.

The Sudan Kordofan Conflict Intensifies in North Kordofan

Sudan’s army intercepted the drone as it approached Bara, a North Kordofan town the army has fought to hold through months of clashes. Sudan Tribune described the aircraft as an FH-95 type drone. This was the second drone that Sudan’s army shot down near its positions in under a week. Sudan Tribune reported that the pace of these interceptions points to heavy drone deployment by both the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces across central Sudan.

Bara sits in North Kordofan state, part of the wider Kordofan region that stretches between the capital Khartoum and the western region of Darfur. Kordofan has become one of the more active fronts in Sudan’s civil war, and the Bara interception is the latest sign that both sides are contesting it hard. Sudan Tribune’s September 24 report frames the repeated drone intercepts as evidence of a shift toward heavier use of unmanned aircraft on this front.

Drone Warfare Spreads Across the Kordofan Front

Drones have moved from an occasional tactic to a recurring feature of the fighting in central Sudan. Neither the Sudanese Armed Forces nor the Rapid Support Forces has said how many drones it operates, but the back-to-back interceptions near Bara, a week apart, show both sides are flying them often enough to draw repeated fire from army air defenses. Sudan Tribune’s reporting ties the pattern directly to the broader contest for towns across North and West Kordofan.

Humanitarian aid efforts amid the Sudan Kordofan conflict

The drones give both the army and the RSF a way to strike or watch targets from a distance, over Kordofan’s open terrain, without moving fighters forward first. The FH-95 drone shot down near Bara is one entry in that exchange. Sudan Tribune’s account does not detail every strike or interception this month, but it singles out the frequency of these incidents as the clearest sign of how central aerial weapons have become to the fighting in Kordofan.

Civilians Flee Three Kordofan Towns as RSF Advances

RSF fighters forced thousands of civilians out of Hamrat al-Sheikh, Al-Mazroub and Umm Badr, Sudan Tribune reported. Displaced residents fled toward the towns of Al-Dabbah and Omdurman, seeking safer ground away from the fighting. The scale of these evacuations adds to a displacement crisis that the United Nations refugee agency, UNHCR, has tracked across Sudan since the civil war began.

In the town of Fuja, the RSF shut down Starlink satellite internet hubs, cutting a communication line that residents and aid workers had relied on. In Wad Abu Saq, RSF forces detained at least seven residents. Sudan Tribune’s report also describes dozens of arrests of civilians accused of spying for the army, though it does not say how many of those arrests happened in Wad Abu Saq itself.

RSF Blockade Deepens Hunger in West Kordofan

Aid workers documented worsening food shortages across West Kordofan state, according to Sudan Tribune. They said food supplies have collapsed and prices have surged because RSF blockades are choking off supply routes into the state. The blockades add a hunger crisis on top of the fighting, compounding pressure on families who have already lost their homes.

UNHCR’s Sudan emergency page describes the broader toll of Sudan’s war as one of the world’s largest displacement crises, a backdrop against which the latest reports from West Kordofan fit. Residents who fled Hamrat al-Sheikh, Al-Mazroub and Umm Badr toward Al-Dabbah and Omdurman now face shortages that extend well beyond the towns they left.

The Road Ahead in Kordofan

Sudan Tribune’s September 24 report does not say when the fighting in Kordofan might ease, and neither the Sudanese Armed Forces nor the Rapid Support Forces has set out a plan to pull back from the towns involved. The drone intercepts near Bara suggest both sides intend to keep contesting North Kordofan’s towns rather than agree to a local pause. Aid workers’ accounts of collapsing food supplies in West Kordofan point to a humanitarian need that will keep growing for as long as the RSF blockades stay in place.

Tamara News has covered other conflicts and mass-casualty events in recent weeks, including South Africa’s tavern shootings that killed 28 people and Russia’s missile strikes on a Kyiv academy and hospital. Away from the fighting, regional infrastructure projects such as the Ethiopia-Djibouti fuel pipeline deal with Dangote continue to move forward, a reminder of how unevenly conflict and investment are distributed across the region. For now, Hamrat al-Sheikh, Al-Mazroub and Umm Badr remain emptied of the residents RSF fighters forced out, and the families who reached Al-Dabbah and Omdurman face an uncertain path home.

Sudan Conflict: Common Questions

What is happening in Sudan’s Kordofan region?
Fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces has intensified in North and West Kordofan, with heavy drone use on both sides and large civilian evacuations, according to Sudan Tribune’s reporting from late September 2026.

What drone did Sudan’s army shoot down near Bara?
Sudan Tribune identified it as an FH-95 type drone. Sudan’s army intercepted it near Bara in North Kordofan, marking the second drone shot down near army positions in under a week.

Which towns did civilians flee?
RSF fighters forced thousands of civilians out of Hamrat al-Sheikh, Al-Mazroub and Umm Badr. Displaced residents fled toward Al-Dabbah and Omdurman.

What happened to internet access in Fuja?
The RSF shut down Starlink satellite internet hubs in the town of Fuja, according to Sudan Tribune.

Why are aid workers concerned about West Kordofan?
Aid workers documented collapsing food supplies and surging prices across West Kordofan state, which they attributed to RSF blockades on supply routes.

Who are the two sides fighting in Sudan?
The conflict is between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), Sudan’s national army, and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a paramilitary group.

Sources

03 Oct 2026
Brazil presidential election - Brazilian flag

Brazil Election Sunday: Lula and Bolsonaro in a Dead Heat

Categories World

The Brazil presidential election takes place on Sunday 4 October 2026, and polls show a race too close to call. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva faces Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, and if neither wins more than 50 percent of valid votes, the top two go to a runoff on 25 October, according to Devdiscourse.

What this report covers

Where the polls stand

The most detailed recent figures come from Datafolha, which surveyed 2,002 people on 22 and 23 September. ThePrint reported first-round support of 40 percent for Lula and 36 percent for Flávio Bolsonaro, followed by Augusto Cury on 5, Ronaldo Caiado on 4 and Renan Santos on 3.

In a simulated runoff Lula led 47 to 45 percent. With a margin of error of two points, the poll described that as a technical tie. Devdiscourse notes that other surveys disagree: a BTG Pactual/Nexus poll gives Lula a slight advantage, while Quaest showed Bolsonaro ahead for the first time. Treat any single poll as a snapshot.

Who is on the ballot

Lula, aged 80 according to the Everything Briefing newsletter summary of the day’s news, is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term. Flávio Bolsonaro is the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year sentence for attempting to overturn his 2022 election loss to Lula, as ThePrint reports.

According to an overnight brief compiled by the Foundation for Defense of Democracies citing the Associated Press, Lula and Bolsonaro both skipped a planned debate, leaving about 158 million voters without a head-to-head. That detail is secondhand, so check the AP report directly.

Why investors are watching

Devdiscourse reports that Bolsonaro’s market-friendly economic approach has drawn investor enthusiasm and helped trigger rallies in Brazilian assets. That makes the first-round result relevant beyond Brazil for anyone with exposure to emerging-market bonds, currencies or commodity exporters. For wider market context this week, see our pieces on European stocks and bond yields and US Treasury yields at the end of September.

A Brazilian founder with dollar-denominated debt, for example, would care less about who wins than about how long the uncertainty lasts. A runoff keeps the question open until 25 October.

What to watch on Sunday and after

The first thing to watch is whether either candidate clears 50 percent of valid votes. Given the polls, a runoff looks plausible, though no poll can confirm it. Official results come from Brazil’s electoral authorities; wire services and broadcasters will report early counts. If a runoff is needed, expect two more weeks of campaigning on the economy, security and the legacy of the 2022 election dispute.

Questions about the Brazil election

When is the Brazil election?

The first round is on Sunday 4 October 2026. A runoff, if needed, is scheduled for 25 October 2026.

When is a runoff needed?

If no candidate wins more than 50 percent of valid votes in the first round, the top two advance.

Who is leading in the polls?

It depends on the survey. Datafolha showed Lula ahead 40 to 36 percent in the first round; Quaest has shown Bolsonaro ahead, per Devdiscourse.

Is Jair Bolsonaro running?

No. His son, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, is the candidate. Jair Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year sentence, ThePrint reports.

Our world coverage will carry the result once official counts are in.

03 Oct 2026
London financial district skyline amid Reeves Budget tax pressure

The £57 Billion Warning Putting Reeves Under Fresh Tax Pressure

Categories Business, World

Reeves Budget tax pressure is building. The UK’s Autumn Budget is weeks away. A leading economic think tank has warned that Chancellor Rachel Reeves is at serious risk of missing her own fiscal rules. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said Reeves is “set to miss her budget targets again.” It projects a shortfall of up to £57 billion by the 2029/30 fiscal year. The warning, reported by Zawya, blames weaker-than-expected economic growth. It raises fresh questions over whether Reeves will need to raise taxes again this autumn.

Reeves Budget tax pressure builds on NIESR warning

NIESR’s warning lands months before the Chancellor’s Budget. Its core finding is simple. Without further action, the government will miss its own fiscal rule by the end of the decade. That rule requires Reeves to balance the current budget through tax revenue, not borrowing, by 2029/30. The current budget covers day-to-day spending on things like public sector pay and services. It excludes investment spending on projects such as roads, hospitals and schools. NIESR estimates the gap between that target and where current policy is heading at £57 billion. Against that target, it says Reeves has only a “narrow leeway” of £10 billion left. That is a thin buffer against a much larger warning. The Chancellor already faces calls to spend more in other areas of policy. Each new spending commitment would narrow that buffer further. NIESR’s language is deliberately blunt. It says Reeves is “set to miss her budget targets again,” with the word “again” pointing to a pattern rather than a one-off miss.

What the NIESR Warning Says About the UK’s Finances

NIESR frames the shortfall as a result of weak growth, not new spending. The institute says growth has come in weaker than expected. That directly cuts the tax revenue the government was counting on. A smaller economy means less income tax, less corporation tax and less VAT. That holds even if spending plans stay the same. It is why the gap is now nearly six times larger than Reeves’s remaining leeway. For a Chancellor who has staked her credibility on meeting her fiscal rule, a shortfall of this size is hard to ignore. It also narrows the political choices available to her ahead of the Budget.

British pound notes symbolizing Reeves Budget tax pressure

NIESR stopped short of naming specific taxes to raise. Instead, it said further tax rises may be needed later this year. That points directly at the Chancellor’s upcoming Budget as the moment such decisions would land. The think tank’s framing suggests this is not a one-off adjustment. Rather, it reflects a structural gap between what the economy is generating in revenue and what current spending plans assume. Closing that gap through growth alone looks unlikely on NIESR’s own forecasts, which leaves taxation and spending as the remaining levers.

UK Growth Forecast Cut as Economy Slows

NIESR has also cut its outlook for UK growth. It now expects growth of 1.2%, down from an earlier estimate of 1.5%. That is a meaningful downgrade for an economy already struggling to gain momentum. The institute expects that weakness to persist. It projects continued softness through to 2030, not a quick rebound. A lower growth path matters for Reeves’s fiscal arithmetic. Her rule is judged against forecasts, not just current numbers. So a weaker long-term outlook pushes her target further out of reach, even with no other changes. Slower growth also weighs on the labour market and business investment. Both feed into tax receipts in turn. If growth undershoots again next year, the £57 billion figure could move further from Reeves’s reach rather than closer to it. That is the dynamic NIESR is flagging: a weak economy compounds the fiscal problem rather than easing it.

Tax Rises and Wage Costs Already Set to Bite

Some of the pressure is not hypothetical. Employer National Insurance contributions are set to rise in November. That adds to the cost of employing staff before any new Budget measure takes effect. At the same time, the UK’s national minimum wage will rise by nearly 7%. That is a significant jump by recent standards. It will raise payroll costs in low-wage sectors such as retail, hospitality and social care, where staffing costs are a large share of overall spending. Employers in those sectors face both changes landing close together. NIESR says uncertainty over further tax changes is already shaping business behaviour. Nervousness about the Budget is weighing on hiring and investment decisions. Firms are holding back rather than committing to new costs while the picture stays unclear. That caution can show up well before any new tax is actually announced, simply because businesses are planning around the risk of one.

Businesses are also absorbing other compliance changes this year. Company directors, for instance, are working through the Companies House identity verification deadline. That is one more administrative burden landing alongside the tax and wage changes, even though it is not a tax measure itself. Taken together, the combination of higher staffing costs, new compliance obligations and the threat of further tax rises paints a demanding picture for UK employers heading into the Budget.

What to Watch Before Budget Day

Attention now turns to how Reeves responds. A Chancellor with only £10 billion of headroom against a £57 billion warning has limited choices. She can raise taxes further. She can cut spending. Or she can accept slippage against her own rule and face the political cost of that. None of those options is easy, and each carries its own risk heading into an already difficult political period. Watch for signals from the Treasury on which taxes might move in the run-up to the Budget. Watch too for how businesses react in the weeks ahead, given the hiring and investment caution NIESR has already flagged. Early signs of firms pulling back on recruitment or capital spending would suggest that caution is deepening rather than easing.

The wider economic debate is not happening in isolation. Commentators have linked the UK’s growth challenges to broader political arguments, including the revived UK rejoin EU debate, as some look for ways to lift the country’s longer-term trade and growth outlook. Other spending pressures add to the competition for room within Reeves’s fiscal rule, including the ongoing UK refugee resettlement scheme. Every one of these claims on the public purse now sits against the backdrop of NIESR’s warning, which leaves the Chancellor with less room to manoeuvre than she had going into the year.

UK Budget: What People Are Asking

What is the £57 billion figure about?
NIESR projects a potential £57 billion shortfall against Rachel Reeves’s fiscal rule by the 2029/30 fiscal year, driven largely by weaker-than-expected economic growth.

What is Rachel Reeves’s fiscal rule?
Her rule commits the government to balancing the current budget, meaning day-to-day spending excluding investment, through taxation rather than borrowing, by the end of the decade.

How much room does Reeves have left against her target?
NIESR estimates she has a “narrow leeway” of about £10 billion remaining against the 2029/30 target.

What tax and wage changes are already set to take effect?
Employer National Insurance contributions are set to rise in November, and the UK national minimum wage is set to increase by nearly 7%.

Has NIESR said taxes will definitely rise again in the Budget?
NIESR has suggested further tax increases may be needed later this year, pointing to the Chancellor’s upcoming Budget, but it has not named specific measures.

Is business investment already being affected by the uncertainty?
Yes. NIESR says nervousness about potential future tax rises is already weighing on hiring and investment decisions in the UK.

Sources

03 Oct 2026
Job seekers at an office after the September jobs report missed estimates

Just 29,000 Jobs Added in September — Why Markets Cheered Anyway

Categories Business

U.S. employers added far fewer jobs than expected in September, and the unemployment rate climbed too. Data released Friday showed the September jobs report falling well short of forecasts, raising fresh doubts about the health of the labor market just weeks before the Federal Reserve’s next interest-rate decision. Nonfarm payrolls rose by just 29,000 last month, versus the 84,000 jobs economists had expected. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, above expectations that it would hold at 4.1%. Stock markets still rallied on the news, as investors bet the weak numbers make a Fed rate cut more likely later this month.

A September Jobs Report That Missed Every Estimate

The September jobs report missed on every major measure economists track. Payroll growth of 29,000 came in far below the 84,000 jobs forecasters had penciled in, a gap wide enough to reset expectations for the rest of the year. The unemployment rate’s rise to 4.2% caught forecasters off guard too; most analysts expected it to hold steady at 4.1%. Yahoo Finance covered the data as part of its October 2 market wrap, noting how unusual it is for both headline numbers to miss in the same direction in a single month.

An economist quoted in that report called the data “mediocre.” The economist added, though, that the report was not “bad enough to shift the focus away from inflation” as the Fed prepares for its next policy meeting. That framing matters: it suggests the Fed’s decision later this month will still hinge heavily on price data, not on hiring weakness alone.

AI’s Mixed Footprint on the U.S. Labor Market

One market analyst described the September data as showing a “mixed” effect from AI adoption across the economy. Some industries cut jobs last month, the analyst said, while technical and specialist roles saw gains. That split helps explain why the headline payroll number came in so weak even as pockets of the labor market held up.

Job seekers reviewing listings after the September jobs report

The uneven pattern complicates any simple reading of the jobs data. A single soft headline figure can mask very different stories by sector. Some companies appear to be automating routine functions and trimming staff in those areas, while competing hard to hire specialists who build or manage that technology. The September jobs report offers only one month’s snapshot, not a trend line, so economists will watch the October and November reports closely to see whether this AI-linked split persists or fades.

Unemployment Rate Climbs to 4.2%

The unemployment rate’s move to 4.2% was the second surprise in Friday’s report. Economists had expected a steady 4.1% rate, so the uptick landed alongside the payroll miss rather than offsetting it. A rising unemployment rate paired with weak payroll growth usually points in the same direction: a labor market cooling faster than forecasters had modeled.

Investors read the unemployment rate alongside the payrolls number as confirmation that hiring demand is softening. That combination is exactly the kind of signal that moves bond markets and rate expectations, and it did so within hours of the release.

Treasury Yields Fall, Stocks Rise on Fed Rate Decision Bets

Treasury yields declined after the report, extending a move investors have been tracking since yields shifted at the end of September. Falling yields typically signal that traders expect looser monetary policy ahead, and Friday’s data pushed those bets further in that direction.

Equity markets rallied on the same logic. The Nasdaq Composite closed up 1.19% at 27,190.86. The S&P 500 gained 0.73% to finish at 7,722.72. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.49% to 51,176.96. All three moves came on October 2, the day the report was released, according to Yahoo Finance’s market wrap. Investors treated the weaker jobs data as good news for stocks because it raises the odds of a Fed rate cut.

The reaction was not confined to U.S. markets. European markets had already been shifting on similar rate expectations earlier in the week, underscoring how closely global markets now track U.S. labor data.

What the Fed Does With This Data

The Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting falls in late October 2026, according to fedratecalc.com’s FOMC meeting schedule. That timing puts the September jobs report squarely in front of policymakers as they weigh their next move.

Despite the miss, the economist quoted in the Yahoo Finance report cautioned against reading too much into one month of weak hiring. Calling the data “mediocre” rather than alarming, the economist said it was not “bad enough to shift the focus away from inflation.” In practice, that means the Fed is likely to weigh the jobs report alongside incoming inflation figures rather than treat soft hiring alone as grounds for a rate move.

Central banks elsewhere face a similar balancing act this month. Markets are also watching how the European Central Bank handles its own growth-versus-inflation tension at its October meeting.

Readers following the broader rate picture can track how European stocks and bond yields moved in the days before this report landed, and how fresh German inflation data is shaping the European Central Bank’s own October decision.

Jobs Report FAQ

How many jobs were added in September 2026?

U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by 29,000 in September 2026, compared with the 84,000 jobs economists had expected.

What is the U.S. unemployment rate after the September jobs report?

The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% in September 2026, above the 4.1% rate analysts expected it to hold.

How did stock markets react to the September jobs report?

U.S. stocks rose on October 2, 2026. The Nasdaq Composite gained 1.19% to close at 27,190.86, the S&P 500 rose 0.73% to 7,722.72, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.49% to 51,176.96.

When is the Federal Reserve’s next interest-rate decision?

The Federal Reserve’s October 2026 policy meeting is scheduled for late October 2026, according to public FOMC meeting calendars.

Why did Treasury yields fall after the jobs report?

Treasury yields declined as investors reassessed the odds of further Federal Reserve interest-rate moves, betting that weaker hiring data increases the chance of a rate cut.

Did AI adoption affect the September jobs numbers?

One market analyst described the data as showing mixed effects from AI adoption, with some industries cutting jobs while technical and specialist roles saw gains.

Sources

03 Oct 2026
Supreme Court immigration detention case

Supreme Court Takes Up Trump Immigration Detention Policy

Categories Immigration

The Supreme Court immigration detention case will decide whether people held by ICE can ask a judge for a bond hearing. The justices agreed on 1 October 2026 to review the Trump administration’s policy of detaining many immigrants without bond, according to Stateline and NBC Los Angeles. No date for oral argument has been set.

In this report

What the Supreme Court agreed to hear

The court will decide whether immigrants arrested inside the United States have a statutory or constitutional right to a bond hearing while their deportation cases proceed. NBC Los Angeles reported that the question reaches the court on a challenge brought by the ACLU, which says the outcome could affect millions of noncitizens.

Stateline identifies the case as Ricardo Barbosa da Cunha, an appeal from the 2nd U.S. Circuit. The administration put the policy in place in July 2025. It requires detention without a bond hearing for people arrested by ICE who crossed the border illegally, regardless of how long ago the crossing happened.

A deep split among the appeals courts

Stateline counts nine appeals courts against the policy, including the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 6th, 7th, 9th, 10th and 11th circuits, and two in favour: the 5th Circuit, covering Louisiana, Mississippi and Texas, and the 8th Circuit in the Midwest. The same report says lower courts have rejected the policy more than 20,000 times, including judges appointed by Republican presidents.

The 2nd Circuit wrote that the policy would create “the broadest mass detention-without-bond mandate in our Nation’s history for millions of noncitizens.” The administration, for its part, argues that the split produces “an unworkable patchwork of inconsistent immigration enforcement” and that the 1996 immigration law supports mandatory detention.

Why bond hearings matter

A bond hearing is the point at which an immigration judge decides whether a person can wait out their case at home. Without one, detention lasts as long as the case does. A Bloomberg Law report from May put the detained population above 60,000 as of early April 2026, up from roughly 48,000 a year earlier, and quoted Georgetown Law professor Denise Gilman on what is at stake: “basic physical liberty”.

Stateline adds a caution for both sides. A ruling for the administration could entrench detention. A ruling against it would not guarantee release, because judges could still deny bond on flight-risk grounds.

What it means for people with a long US history

Consider a hypothetical case: a Mexican welder who crossed without papers a decade ago, has a steady job and family, and is arrested at a traffic stop. Under the policy as reported, he would not get a bond hearing even though he was arrested far from the border and long after entering. Under the approach most appeals courts have taken, he could ask a judge to weigh whether he is a danger or a flight risk.

That illustration is not a prediction about any real person. It shows why the date of entry and place of arrest are central to the dispute. For related changes affecting people already in the US, see our coverage of the duration-of-status injunction for F-1 students and the narrowed USCIS filing deadline extension.

What happens next

With no argument date set, a decision is unlikely in the immediate term. Until the court rules, outcomes continue to depend on the circuit where a person is held, which is exactly the patchwork the administration says it wants the justices to end. Anyone affected should speak to a licensed immigration attorney about their circuit and facts; this article is news, not legal advice. People planning travel or applications can also use the official guidance in our diversity visa update.

Questions about the detention case

Has the Supreme Court decided the case?

No. The court agreed on 1 October 2026 to hear it. No oral argument date has been announced, according to Stateline.

What is the policy being challenged?

A policy in effect since July 2025 that requires detention without a bond hearing for people arrested by ICE who crossed the border illegally, regardless of how long ago.

Which courts have ruled for the administration?

Stateline reports the 5th and 8th circuits have backed the policy, while nine other appeals courts have ruled against it.

Does a loss for the administration mean release?

Not automatically. Stateline notes judges could still deny bond on flight-risk grounds even if bond hearings are required.

Who is challenging the policy?

NBC Los Angeles reports the ACLU represents the plaintiffs.

Follow our immigration coverage for the next filing in the case, and see our report on US sanctions policy for other Washington developments this week.

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