Why Pakistan and Afghanistan Can’t Agree on a Ceasefire

The latest round of Pakistan Afghanistan ceasefire talks has ended the way most of this year’s attempts have. Both sides are still blaming each other. There is no joint statement to show for it. Pakistan’s Foreign Office said on 16 October that talks with Kabul “cannot be unconditional.” It insisted Islamabad is not avoiding dialogue, including with Afghan representatives. The two governments remain locked in a dispute that has run for most of 2026. That is despite repeated mediation attempts by at least four different countries.

The latest formal effort, the Moscow Format consultations held on 5 October, ended without a joint communiqué. Pakistani officials attribute that failure to Afghan reluctance. Kabul reportedly would not accept previously agreed language describing terrorist networks operating from Afghan soil, language both sides had accepted in earlier rounds.

What Pakistan is actually demanding

Islamabad has narrowed its position to a single, repeatedly stated condition. Foreign Office spokesperson Sajjad Haider Khan called it “a verifiable mechanism to ensure complete cessation of terrorist activities emanating from Afghan soil.” In practice, that means action against Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan and other armed groups. Islamabad says these groups use Afghan territory to stage cross-border attacks. Khan accused the Taliban government of taking “one step forward and one step backward” on the issue. That phrase captures the pattern of partial commitments followed by inaction seen since early in the year.

The Afghan Taliban administration has avoided a categorical position on the TTP. It continues to reject Pakistan’s framing that Afghanistan serves as a base for attacks against its neighbor.

Khyber Pass mountains near the Pakistan Afghanistan ceasefire talks border

Four mediators, one unresolved dispute

The list of countries that have tried to broker a settlement has grown steadily without producing a lasting one. Qatar and Türkiye helped negotiate a ceasefire in October 2025. It held only briefly before follow-on talks stalled. Saudi Arabia hosted a separate round of discussions. China convened talks between the two sides in Urumqi in April 2026. None resolved the core dispute over cross-border militancy. The pattern of mediated calm followed by renewed friction has repeated at least three times this year.

Russia has now offered to join that list. Moscow’s envoy, Zamir Kabulov, floated the idea of formal Russian mediation earlier in October. That is notable partly because Russia is the only country to have formally recognised the Taliban government. Pakistan’s Foreign Office said it is not aware of any formal Russian mediation initiative currently under discussion. The offer remains in diplomatic limbo for now.

Pakistan Afghanistan ceasefire talks and the wider regional picture

The dispute has also pulled in a third actor. Khan used this month’s briefing to reject a threat from India’s Defence Minister Rajnath Singh. Singh had threatened a larger strike in response to future terrorist attacks. Khan pointed to the two countries’ May 2025 confrontation and warned of a stronger Pakistani response to any aggression from that direction. That three-way tension means Islamabad is managing friction on two borders at once. Analysts say this partly explains its insistence on a verifiable security guarantee from Kabul before softening its position further.

What happens from here

The Moscow round failed to produce a communiqué. No new mediation session has been confirmed. The near-term path runs through informal channels rather than a scheduled summit. Three things would signal a genuine shift. Kabul could publicly name specific steps against TTP networks rather than issue general denials. Islamabad could soften its “no unconditional talks” stance in response. Or Russia’s mediation offer could be formally accepted by both sides. Absent one of those, the current stalemate looks likely to continue into the winter.

Border trade between the two countries has also suffered during the standoff, with intermittent crossing closures compounding the diplomatic freeze. Traders on both sides of the Durand Line have reported shipment delays running into weeks, adding economic pressure to a dispute that so far has been argued mainly in security terms.

Frequently asked questions

What is Pakistan’s core demand from Afghanistan?
A verifiable mechanism to ensure the complete cessation of terrorist activity originating from Afghan soil, targeted specifically at groups like Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan.

Did the Moscow Format talks produce an agreement?
No. The 5 October consultations ended without a joint communiqué, which Pakistani officials attribute to Afghan reluctance to accept previously agreed language on terrorist networks.

Which countries have tried to mediate the dispute?
Qatar and Türkiye brokered an October 2025 ceasefire, Saudi Arabia hosted separate discussions, and China held talks in Urumqi in April 2026. Russia has since offered to mediate as well.

Has Pakistan’s Foreign Office commented on Russian mediation?
Yes. Spokesperson Sajjad Haider Khan said Pakistan is not aware of any formal Russian mediation initiative currently under discussion, despite envoy Zamir Kabulov’s earlier offer.

How does the India dimension factor in?
Pakistan’s Foreign Office this month rejected a threat from India’s Defence Minister of a larger strike over future attacks, pointing to a May 2025 confrontation, which adds a second front to Islamabad’s security calculus.

Is a ceasefire currently in effect?
The Foreign Office has described ongoing diplomatic efforts toward de-escalation, but no durable, publicly confirmed ceasefire agreement has replaced the one brokered in October 2025.

For related coverage of regional diplomacy this month, see our reports on US Iran diplomatic talks and Venezuela’s political transition. For how South Asian border tension intersects with regional politics, read our coverage of the Israel election results.

The Next US Shutdown Clock Just Started Ticking Again

Washington avoided a shutdown in October. But the US government shutdown deadline everyone is now watching sits just six weeks away. Federal agencies are funded through 11 December 2026. That is under a continuing resolution President Trump signed on 2 September, after the House passed the Senate’s measure, H.R. 6500, by 370-48. A lapse would begin 12 December if Congress fails to act again. As of 28 October, none of the twelve full-year FY2027 spending bills had been enacted.

That sounds like routine Washington brinkmanship. But the backdrop is not routine. Federal employees have already lived through three funding lapses since October 2025. Together they total 122 days, including a 43-day shutdown last October, one of the longest in US history. The December cliff is the fourth test of the same fight in just over a year.

What actually happened to avert the shutdown

The path to the current calm took several turns. The House passed a clean continuing resolution, H.R. 9770, by 220-205 on 21 July. That bill had a 4 December funding date attached. The Senate then advanced its own version 89-4 on 3 August. It passed it 90-6 on 8 August, pushing the date to 11 December. Six senators voted no on final passage: Bill Cassidy, Rand Paul, Tim Kaine, Ed Markey, Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders. The House ultimately accepted the Senate’s later date. Trump signed the bill on 2 September.

The core dispute has not gone away. House Republicans’ spending bills total roughly $1.856 trillion. That is about $217 billion, or 13%, above FY2026 levels. The Senate has not yet settled its own spending toplines. It has postponed committee markups twice over that gap. The current law also blocks a White House budget office rule. That rule would have required political appointees to sign off on grants until 11 December. The law also bars the Department of Homeland Security from shifting funds toward Border Patrol in the interim.

The US government shutdown deadline and federal workers

Federal employees have reason to watch the fine print as closely as the calendar. An Office of Management and Budget and Office of Personnel Management memo issued 23 October rescinded 2025 guidance. That guidance had allowed reductions in force during a funding lapse. The change followed a September settlement in the case AFGE v. OMB over shutdown-era layoffs. Separately, Trump’s 26 August alternative pay plan would hold 2027 civilian base and locality pay at 0%. That holds unless Congress sets a different figure. Law enforcement personnel would see 3.8%.

Capitol dome at night during the US government shutdown deadline debate
Photo: Dkallen78 / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 4.0)

None of these measures resolve the underlying fight. They simply define the terms of the next one. That assumes lawmakers need another stopgap rather than finishing full-year bills by 11 December. Most Capitol Hill trackers consider a further stopgap the likeliest outcome.

Why the midterms change the political math

The timing is not incidental. The 11 December deadline falls after the 3 November midterm elections. That leaves a lame-duck session as the main vehicle for either a fifth stopgap or a genuine spending deal. Lawmakers on both sides have strong incentives to avoid a shutdown fight before voters go to the polls. That is part of why September’s deal cleared with comfortable margins despite the underlying disagreement over spending levels.

Once the elections are behind them, that incentive structure changes. A lame-duck Congress facing a December deadline has historically been more willing to either strike a deal quickly or let brinkmanship run close to the wire. Control of one or both chambers could also shift in January, adding further pressure.

What happens between now and the deadline

Three signals are worth tracking. The first is whether a second short-term stopgap starts circulating before Thanksgiving. That would suggest leadership has already concluded full-year bills won’t be ready. The second is whether any of the twelve FY2027 appropriations bills reach the floor in November. Real movement there would be the clearest sign a deal is within reach. The third is whether federal agencies begin publishing updated shutdown contingency plans. That typically signals an administration bracing for a real possibility of a lapse.

Frequently asked questions

When does current government funding expire?
Federal agencies are funded through 11 December 2026 under the continuing resolution Trump signed on 2 September. A lapse would begin 12 December without further action.

Did a shutdown happen in October 2026?
No. Congress passed a continuing resolution before the prior deadline, avoiding a lapse, though the underlying spending dispute between the House and Senate remains unresolved.

How many shutdowns have there been since October 2025?
Three funding lapses have occurred since October 2025, totaling 122 days, including a 43-day shutdown that was among the longest in US history.

What happens to federal pay if there is another shutdown?
Trump’s alternative pay plan from 26 August would hold 2027 civilian base and locality pay at 0% unless Congress legislates otherwise. Law enforcement personnel would receive 3.8%.

Can federal workers be laid off during a future lapse?
An October 23 memo from the budget and personnel offices rescinded 2025 guidance that had permitted reductions in force during a shutdown, following a September court settlement on the issue.

Why does the December deadline matter politically?
It falls after the November 3 midterms, removing the pre-election incentive that helped produce September’s deal and shifting the fight to a lame-duck Congress with different pressures.

For related coverage of Washington’s fiscal and political calendar, see our reports on the Fed rate decision and the Nobel Prize in economics. For how this fits into broader US foreign policy bandwidth, read our coverage of US Iran diplomatic talks.

A Secret Letter to Iran Just Collided With a War Warning

Featured photo: Asadi s / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 4.0)

The US Iran diplomatic talks are quietly back on. Days ago, Washington reportedly sent a private overture to Tehran. At the same time, it is telling Gulf allies to brace for renewed military action. According to The Wall Street Journal, citing US officials, Vice President JD Vance sent a letter to Mohsen Rezaei, chairman of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council. The goal was reviving negotiations. President Donald Trump downplayed the move. He said he had not directed Vance to contact Iran. He described the letter as being about humanitarian aid: “they need help with medical supplies and various things.”

The outreach lands at a tense moment. The same report said Washington has warned several Gulf Arab governments to prepare for a possible renewed campaign against Iran. That campaign could follow the November 3 midterm elections. The timeline has unsettled energy markets and regional capitals alike. The result is a familiar split-screen. A diplomatic channel is opening on one track. Military contingency planning continues on another.

Why the US Iran diplomatic talks resurfaced now

Tehran and Washington have lacked a reliable diplomatic channel for most of 2026. Open hostility has been punctuated by short-lived backchannel contacts. The Vance letter, if accurately described, would mark one of the more senior-level contacts in recent months. Trump’s framing of it as humanitarian, not diplomatic, gives the administration room to deny it is softening its stance. At the same time, it lets Washington test whether Tehran will engage.

Iran’s government has not issued a detailed public response. Separately, Pakistan’s ambassador to the United Nations, Usman Jadoon, told the Security Council this week that Pakistan remains concerned that the Iran nuclear file “has sharply deteriorated.” He urged that compliance questions go through technical bodies such as the IAEA rather than becoming politicized.

The warning to Gulf allies that complicates the picture

What makes the diplomatic opening harder to read is a parallel warning. Gulf Arab states have reportedly been told to plan for a possible strike campaign once the midterms pass. That timing would remove a domestic political constraint that has shaped US decisions much of this year. For the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman, this is not abstract. Regional air traffic, shipping and energy infrastructure are all exposed if hostilities resume.

US Navy ship deployed amid US Iran diplomatic talks

Civil aviation has already adjusted. The European Union Aviation Safety Agency extended its airspace-avoidance advisory for Iran, Iraq, Lebanon and Jordan through 16 November. The same advisory covers Gulf waters off the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and Oman. EASA cites “high risks from missiles, drones and air-defence systems.” Singapore Airlines and its budget arm Scoot have separately pushed their own route restarts into early December.

How markets are pricing the US Iran diplomatic talks

Energy traders are watching the diplomatic track closely. It is one of the few levers that could quickly ease a supply-risk premium that has kept oil elevated for months. Brent crude eased to around $114 a barrel after gaining more than 1% the prior session. The prospect of talks offset fears of disruption. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo noted that global inventories “have fallen sharply,” with strategic reserve releases “largely completed.” That means the market has far less spare cushion than earlier in the conflict.

Emirates NBD’s Nick Stadtmiller summed up the mood: “Oil prices remain volatile as markets respond to developments affecting regional production and infrastructure.” A single diplomatic signal, even an unconfirmed one, can move prices. So can a single warning the other way.

What happens next

Three things are worth watching. First, whether Tehran responds to the reported Vance letter, and how. Second, whether the midterms genuinely mark the point when military planning accelerates, as Gulf states expect. Third, whether EASA’s 16 November deadline holds, slips, or narrows. Each outcome will shape airline scheduling and insurance costs into December.

None of these threads clearly points toward de-escalation or escalation alone. Together, they describe a standoff. Both sides are keeping a door open. Both are also preparing for it to close.

Frequently asked questions

What did JD Vance reportedly send to Iran?
According to The Wall Street Journal, citing US officials, Vance sent a letter to Mohsen Rezaei, chairman of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council. The aim was reviving talks with Tehran.

Did President Trump confirm the letter?
No. Trump said he did not direct Vance to contact Iran. He described the letter’s content as humanitarian aid, including medical supplies.

Why were Gulf Arab countries warned to prepare for action?
The Journal reported Washington told several Gulf states to ready for a possible renewed US campaign against Iran. That campaign could follow the November 3 midterms.

How is the airspace restriction connected to this story?
EASA’s advisory avoiding Iranian, Iraqi, Lebanese, Jordanian and Gulf airspace runs through 16 November. It responds directly to elevated military risk tied to the same standoff.

Has oil reacted to the reported talks?
Yes. Brent crude eased after gaining the prior session, as traders weighed the diplomatic signal against supply-risk warnings from analysts including UBS.

Is a resolution expected soon?
No firm timeline exists. Officials have not confirmed whether the contact will lead to formal talks. Washington’s parallel warning to Gulf states suggests it is not standing down militarily.

For more on the market and travel effects of this standoff, see our coverage of Brent crude oil prices and Middle East flight suspensions. For the broader diplomatic backdrop in South Asia this month, read our report on Pakistan Afghanistan ceasefire talks.

Fed Rate Decision: Rates Held at 3.75-4% With Two Dissents

The Federal Reserve left its benchmark overnight lending rate in a range of 3¾% to 4% on 28 October 2026, a decision that passed 10–2, according to the Federal Open Market Committee statement. The Fed rate decision came with two dissents in the hawkish direction: Governors Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack preferred a quarter-point increase, the statement says. Al Jazeera reports the hold was widely expected and follows a rate rise in September, the first since July 2023.

In this report

What the Fed decided

The committee kept the target range unchanged and cited its dual mandate of maximum employment and stable prices. Its statement describes activity as growing briskly, with spending holding up despite elevated uncertainty, partly linked to geopolitical events, and with strong productivity and business investment. Hiring has matched labour force growth, and unemployment has barely moved. On the balance sheet, the committee said only that it is continuing to keep ample reserves in the banking system.

Why inflation is driving the debate

The statement says “Inflation remains elevated” and that the committee wants more information before settling on the policy stance needed to bring inflation back to 2% in a timely way. Al Jazeera cites the latest consumer price report as showing annual inflation of 3.7% in September, up from 3.4% in August, with energy prices the main driver of the monthly increase. It adds that the Fed’s preferred PCE inflation gauge is due on Thursday, which is today.

The political pressure

Al Jazeera reports that Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman favoured a wait-and-see approach and said she felt no urgency to act further. President Donald Trump, who has pressed for cuts, wrote on Truth Social that US interest rates should be 1% or less, according to the same report. That is the president’s stated view; it is not a forecast by the committee, which just held rates well above that level.

What it means for borrowers abroad

As an illustration, not a real case: a Vietnamese graduate student with a US dollar education loan on a variable rate should expect borrowing costs to stay near current levels while the Fed holds, and should check the loan agreement for how and when the rate resets. Students planning US study can compare costs on our US visa bulletin coverage and use the visa eligibility checker to plan a route. For how markets have been pricing the dollar, see our report on gold and dollar strength in October, and our earlier FOMC preview.

What the Fed does next

The next meeting is on 8–9 December, which Al Jazeera says will bring the final rate decision of the year. The outlet adds that current forecasts point to a quarter-point increase but does not say who made those forecasts or when, so readers should treat that as one outlet’s summary of market expectations, not as a commitment by the Fed. Two dissents for a rise at this meeting show the committee is not united on holding.

Fed decision questions

What is the Fed’s rate range now?

3¾% to 4%, unchanged after the 28 October 2026 meeting, according to the FOMC statement.

Was the vote unanimous?

No. It was 10–2, with Governors Cook and Hammack preferring a quarter-point increase.

What is the latest inflation figure?

Al Jazeera cites 3.7% annual inflation in September, up from 3.4% in August.

When is the next meeting?

8–9 December 2026, per Al Jazeera.

Did the Fed raise rates recently?

Al Jazeera reports a rise last month, the first since July 2023.

What did Trump say?

According to Al Jazeera he wrote that US rates should be 1% or less.

Sources

Image: Eccles Building, public domain, via Wikimedia Commons.

New Zealand Already Started Voting — Here’s What’s Actually at Stake

New Zealanders are already voting, days before the formal election day arrives. The New Zealand 2026 election reaches its climax on 7 November, but advance voting opened on 26 October. That gives voters nearly two weeks to cast a ballot before polls officially close.

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon announced the 7 November date back in January. He spoke to reporters at the National Party’s caucus retreat in Christchurch, according to interest.co.nz’s report on the announcement. He told coalition partners ACT and NZ First about the date the day before his public announcement. Luxon explained the timing simply: “that was the logical time.” He added that most New Zealand elections have landed in late October or early November historically. That makes this date unremarkable by past standards, even as the race itself looks closely contested. Officials also said setting the date early avoids clashes with major sporting and cultural events on the calendar, a point also covered by Sun Live.

What’s actually at stake in the New Zealand 2026 election

Luxon has been clear about his coalition preferences heading into the vote. He said National would work with ACT and NZ First again if the numbers allow it. He ruled out working with Labour, the Greens or Te Pāti Māori. His preference, in his own words, is “maximising the National Party vote.” He put it this way: “I can make a coalition work if I have to, my preference would be to make sure I’m maximising the National Party vote.”

Voters face a real choice. One path continues the current National-led coalition. The other shifts toward an alternative government built from Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori. New Zealand’s mixed-member proportional voting system makes an outright majority unlikely for any single party. Coalition arithmetic will matter as much as any single party’s vote share once results come in. Minor parties crossing or missing the threshold could end up deciding which bloc actually governs.

The calendar that got New Zealand here

A specific sequence of dates shaped this election cycle. Parliament rose on 24 September. It formally dissolved on 1 October. Writ day fell on 4 October, the formal start of the campaign period. Candidate nominations closed at noon on 8 October. Advance voting began on 26 October, two days before this article published. That gives most voters a long window to cast an early ballot if they prefer avoiding election-day lines. The last day to return the official writ, closing out the formal process, is 3 December.

New Zealand’s enrollment rules also matter here. Under current electoral law, enrollment closes 13 days before election day. That cutoff point falls in late October this cycle, well before voters head to the polls on 7 November itself.

How this election fits into a busy global season

New Zealand is not the only country working through a political transition this season. Tamara News has also covered a very different kind of political transition unfolding in Venezuela this same week. Readers following immigration policy can also see how New Zealand’s own graduate work visa changes, due 16 November, will land just days after this election. Whichever government takes office will be the one implementing them.

What happens after New Zealanders finish voting

Final results typically take time to confirm fully once election day passes. Special votes and overseas ballots need processing after the initial count. If no single party wins a majority, which is the normal outcome under New Zealand’s voting system, coalition negotiations begin once preliminary results are clear. Luxon’s stated preference for a National-ACT-NZ First arrangement gives one likely template. Final seat counts will decide whether that combination actually reaches a workable majority once every vote is counted. A government typically takes office within a few weeks of a confirmed result, once coalition negotiations wrap up and ministerial positions get settled among the governing partners.

The Beehive in Wellington, the backdrop to the New Zealand 2026 election

FAQ: New Zealand 2026 election

When is New Zealand’s 2026 election?
Election day is 7 November 2026, with advance voting already open since 26 October.

Who announced the election date?
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon announced the date in January 2026, at a National Party caucus retreat in Christchurch.

Which parties does Luxon want to govern with?
Luxon has said National would work again with ACT and NZ First, while ruling out Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori.

When does enrollment close for this election?
Enrollment closes 13 days before election day under current law, which falls in late October this cycle.

Will one party win a majority outright?
Unlikely. New Zealand’s mixed-member proportional system usually produces coalition governments rather than single-party majorities.

When will final results be confirmed?
Final counts typically take time after election day, since special votes and overseas ballots require additional processing before certification.

Can New Zealanders still enroll to vote?
Enrollment closed 13 days before election day under current electoral law, so late enrollment options were limited by the time advance voting opened on 26 October.

What is the mixed-member proportional system?
It is New Zealand’s voting system, which allocates parliamentary seats roughly in proportion to each party’s share of the national vote, making single-party majorities uncommon.