Author Archives: Francisca Samuel

Venezuela’s political transition is entering a tense new phase. On 26 October 2026, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters that the alternative to a successful handover is either armed conflict or a return to the repression that marked the final years of Nicolás Maduro’s rule. “If this process doesn’t work, then the alternative is going to be worse,” he said, according to an IANS report carried by The Hans India.

Maduro himself is already out of power and in US custody, facing a fresh set of charges on top of earlier ones. In his place, interim president Delcy Rodríguez has been overseeing a government Washington still does not fully trust. Rubio’s remarks, delivered a day later on 27 October, make clear the transition’s deadline pressure has not eased just because Maduro is gone.

What Rubio said about Venezuela’s political transition

Speaking from Washington, Rubio set out a blunt framework for Venezuela’s political transition. According to a report from Agenzia Nova, he said the United States is prepared to use sanctions to push interim authorities to keep the commitments they have already made. He credited the interim government with meeting every deadline agreed so far, but warned that patience is not unlimited.

He was equally direct about accountability. Interim officials, Rodríguez included, “will be judged on their actions rather than their statements,” Rubio said, adding that immunity from prosecution is off the table for anyone in the interim government. That is a notably harder line than the kind of blanket amnesty often floated in negotiated transitions elsewhere.

Why the electoral council is the real sticking point

At the centre of Rubio’s demands sits an institutional problem rather than a political one. He wants Venezuela’s National Electoral Council and its Supreme Court replaced before any vote can be considered credible, arguing both bodies remain loaded with officials loyal to the old Maduro apparatus. “How can you have a legitimate election in Venezuela when the Electoral Council is controlled by people loyal to one side,” he said.

No fixed election date has been set. Rubio said Washington would not let interim leadership delay a vote indefinitely, but he also avoided naming a specific deadline, which leaves plenty of room for the kind of slow-walking that has derailed past transitions in the region.

Machado’s return and the sanctions lever

One concrete sign of progress: opposition leader María Corina Machado returned to Venezuela on 26 October without incident, Rubio said, after the US told interim authorities weeks earlier that her return should be permitted. Machado has publicly criticised a US-backed oil arrangement with a private company, but Rubio said those objections should not be allowed to derail the broader transition.

That oil arrangement is itself part of the leverage equation. Some sanctioned activity is currently allowed to continue under Treasury waivers and general licenses, which keep limited oil revenue flowing. Rubio suggested those waivers are conditional rather than permanent, and could be pulled back if the interim government falls behind on its commitments. He also said Washington’s broader goal includes making it possible for the estimated 6 to 7 million Venezuelans who left the country during the Maduro years to come home.

What happens from here

For now, Venezuela’s political transition remains a negotiation conducted mostly in public statements rather than signed documents. Rubio expressed confidence the process could be completed before his own time in office ends, which is as close as he came to putting a timeline on it. He also said Iranian and Cuban influence inside Venezuela has been sharply reduced since the transition began, a claim that, like much of this story, rests on the US government’s own account rather than independent verification.

The coming weeks are likely to turn on two concrete signals: whether the electoral council and court actually get replaced, and whether the oil waivers survive. Either one slipping would tell us more about where this transition is really headed than another round of statements.

Frequently asked questions

Why is Marco Rubio warning about civil war in Venezuela?
Rubio said that if the US-backed transition in Caracas stalls, the alternative is either armed conflict or a return to the repression of the Maduro era. He made the comments to reporters on 26 October 2026, framing the warning as pressure on interim authorities to move faster on reform.

Who is running Venezuela’s interim government?
Delcy Rodríguez has been acting as interim president since the transition began. Rubio said she and other interim officials would be judged on actions rather than statements, and ruled out immunity from prosecution for interim officials.

What does the US want changed before elections happen?
Washington wants Venezuela’s National Electoral Council (CNE) and Supreme Court (TSJ) replaced, arguing both are stacked with officials loyal to the former Maduro government and cannot run a credible vote.

Is María Corina Machado back in Venezuela?
Rubio said opposition leader María Corina Machado returned to Venezuela on 26 October 2026 without incident, after Washington told interim authorities weeks earlier that she should be allowed back.

Will the US lift sanctions on Venezuela?
Not unconditionally. Rubio said some oil-related activity is already permitted through Treasury waivers and general licenses, but warned those could be reconsidered if interim authorities fall behind on agreed commitments.

What happens if the transition fails?
Rubio framed it as a binary choice: reform that leads to a stable, internationally recognised government, or a slide back into armed conflict or authoritarian rule. He gave no fixed election date but said Washington would not let the process drag on indefinitely.

For more on how the region’s politics are moving this week, see our coverage of the charges Maduro now faces in US custody and the protests that preceded this transition.