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Monthly Archives: October 2026

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25 Oct 2026
Travelers walking through an airport terminal representing the drop in Canada temporary resident arrivals

Fewer New Arrivals, More People With Work Permits: Canada’s Confusing New Numbers

Categories Canada, Immigration

New data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada shows a sharp divide in what is happening to Canada’s temporary resident population. New arrivals have plunged. At the same time, the total number of people holding a work permit keeps climbing. The Canada temporary resident arrivals figures, published October 20, 2026, show combined new worker and student arrivals down 63% for the first eight months of the year.

What the Canada temporary resident arrivals data actually shows

According to figures reported by Immigration.ca, new worker arrivals from January through August 2026 totaled 130,095. That is down 57% from the same period in 2024. New international student arrivals fell even further, down 71%, to 65,240. Combined, the two categories totaled 195,335 new arrivals this year. That is a drop of 326,900 people compared with the same eight months two years earlier, a 63% decline.

Border crossing checkpoint booths tied to the latest Canada temporary resident arrivals data

Those numbers describe only the flow of brand-new arrivals. They say nothing about how many people are currently in Canada on a temporary permit. That second figure is moving in a very different direction.

The scale of the eight-month drop stands out even against a year that already saw tighter immigration policy throughout 2025. A decline of more than 300,000 new arrivals in a single comparison window stands out sharply. It represents one of the sharpest year-over-year shifts in recent Canadian immigration data. Officials have not published a single explanation for the size of the drop. It does follow a series of policy changes announced across both the student and worker streams over the past two years.

The work permit population is still growing

As of August 31, 2026, 1,550,215 people held a work permit in Canada. That is up 8.2% from 1,432,100 in August 2024, an increase of 118,115 people even as new worker arrivals collapsed. Timing explains the gap. IRCC processes applications under whichever rules applied when someone first submitted them. Permits approved years ago under looser policy keep adding to the total count, long after newer, tighter rules took hold.

Study permit holders moved the opposite way. Their total stock fell nearly 41%, from 1,019,545 in August 2024 to 602,115 in August 2026. That decline moved faster than the work permit population. It also lines up more closely with the sharp drop in new student arrivals.

Provincial breakdowns of the data, when IRCC eventually publishes them, are likely to show uneven effects across the country. Provinces that relied heavily on international students for local labor markets may feel the decline more acutely. That group includes parts of Ontario and British Columbia, compared with provinces that had a smaller temporary resident population to begin with.

Why the government’s own numbers lag its own policy

This gap between new arrivals and total stock is the clearest evidence yet of a slow-moving shift. Shrinking Canada’s temporary resident population will take years, not one policy switch. A work permit issued in 2023 or 2024 can still sit active in 2026. The full effect of newer, tighter rules will only show up in the stock figures once those older permits expire or go unrenewed.

IRCC’s broader data releases point to a system still working through a large volume of older applications. Recent figures on permanent residence and citizenship processing show that backlog clearly. Meanwhile, the front door for brand-new arrivals keeps narrowing fast.

Economists studying labor markets have flagged a related concern. Employers in sectors that depend heavily on temporary foreign workers may face staffing pressure. Agriculture and parts of hospitality are two examples, since new-arrival numbers are shrinking faster than employers can adjust their hiring plans. Whether that pressure shows up broadly in those industries this year is one of the open questions this data raises without yet answering.

What this means for anyone planning to come to Canada

For prospective workers and students, the 57% and 71% drops in new arrivals matter more than the headline stock figures. Those drops reflect the environment someone applying today is actually entering. The legacy population still working through the system does not. Combined with Express Entry’s recent shift toward high-wage job offers, the overall picture turns clear. Canada’s system is narrowing who gets in as a new arrival. At the same time, it keeps processing a large backlog admitted under older rules.

Prospective applicants should also note one thing. Processing times for existing applications have not necessarily sped up just because fewer new applications are arriving. A smaller inflow of new cases does not automatically clear a backlog built up from prior years of higher application volume.

A note on how to read government immigration data

Readers comparing these figures to other coverage should watch one distinction closely. A flow measures new arrivals in a given period. A stock measures the total population holding a permit on a given date. The two can move in opposite directions at the same time, exactly as they are doing here. Mixing the two up is one of the most common ways immigration statistics get misread in public debate.

How Canada’s numbers compare with past targets

The federal government set out a multi-year plan in recent years. Its goal is to shrink temporary resident numbers as a share of Canada’s total population. This data offers an early checkpoint on that plan rather than a final verdict. The sharp drop in new arrivals suggests the front-end levers, like tighter study and work permit approvals, are working as designed. Whether the back-end stock numbers follow at the pace officials originally promised remains the open question heading into next year.

What happens next with Canada’s temporary resident numbers

Expect the work permit and study permit stock figures to keep converging with the new-arrival trend over the next year or two. Permits issued under older rules will expire without being replaced at the same volume. IRCC has not announced further changes to arrival volumes. What already shows up in this data, and in the Express Entry reforms taking effect November 3, stands as the latest word for now.

For more on Canada’s shifting immigration rules, see Tamara News’ coverage of the new Express Entry high-wage points system and the Quebec worker selection program.

25 Oct 2026
Saudi property ownership

Saudi Arabia Sets Property Rules for Foreign Companies

Categories Business, Immigration

Saudi Arabia’s Investor Guide 2026 adds a dedicated chapter on Saudi property ownership for foreign companies, setting out the documents a non-resident foreign company must provide. Gulf News reported the document list, which it attributes to the Okaz newspaper, with its page last updated on 6 June 2026. This is an explainer rather than breaking news, and the effective date is not stated in the report we read.

Contents

What the guide adds

According to Gulf News, the Ministry of Investment says the new chapter gives “greater clarity for foreign entities”. The rules are published on the ministry’s electronic platform, and the report does not give fees, thresholds or statistics. The specific document requirements are attributed to Okaz, not quoted directly from the guide, so read the guide on the Ministry of Investment site before you rely on any detail.

Documents foreign companies must provide

As reported, applicants must provide a commercial registration certificate issued in their home country, and articles of incorporation translated by accredited translators and authenticated through Saudi diplomatic channels. They also need documents authorising a representative to act in Saudi Arabia, and an individual representative appointed through a certified power of attorney. A company without a recognised identification document can obtain a digital identity through Saudi diplomatic missions abroad. For annual renewals, the company must confirm that ownership and management have not changed since registration with the Ministry of Investment.

Who it applies to

The report says the chapter concerns non-resident foreign companies that want to own property in Saudi Arabia without establishing or carrying on economic activity there. It does not describe the rules for a company that sets up an operating branch or subsidiary, which follow a separate licensing route.

A worked example

Consider a hypothetical case. Camila is a Brazilian founder whose holding company wants to buy an office unit in Riyadh as an investment, without hiring staff there. Based on the reported list, she would need her home-country registration certificate, authenticated and translated articles, and a power of attorney naming a representative. Each year she would then confirm that ownership and management had not changed. Whether further approvals apply to the purchase itself is not covered in the report.

What the report does not say

There is no effective date, no fee schedule, and no timeline for processing. The authentication and translation steps can take time in the home country, so allow for them early. Other Gulf markets have been moving on investor rules too, and our coverage of Kuwait’s 15-year investor residency and Oman’s free zone regulations gives context for comparing them. If you are planning a cross-border structure, see our company formation services page.

For founders, the practical lesson is to treat the document chain as a project of its own. Authentication through diplomatic channels depends on the home country, so a missing apostille-style step can delay everything else. Keep certified copies current, make sure the translator is accredited as the report requires, and confirm the power of attorney names the right individual. Gulf News also notes the guide is aimed at clarity for foreign entities, which suggests the ministry expects more such filings, but the report gives no numbers to back that up.

Saudi foreign-company questions

What is new in Saudi Arabia’s Investor Guide 2026?

A dedicated chapter on property ownership by foreign companies, according to Gulf News.

Who must follow these steps?

Non-resident foreign companies seeking to own property without setting up or carrying on economic activity in Saudi Arabia.

What documents are required?

A home-country commercial registration certificate, authenticated and translated articles, authorisation documents and a certified power of attorney for an individual representative.

Do companies need to renew?

Yes, annually, with confirmation that ownership and management have not changed.

When did the rules take effect?

The report we read does not state an effective date.

Where are the official rules?

On the Ministry of Investment’s electronic platform. Check it directly before filing.

Sources

25 Oct 2026
Traveler holding a passport and immigration paperwork representing the new Express Entry high-wage points rules

Canada Just Brought Back Job Offer Points — But Only If You’re a High Earner

Categories Canada, Immigration

Canada is overhauling how Express Entry rewards a job offer. It is introducing Express Entry high-wage points worth up to 100 points for candidates with offers in better-paying occupations. At the same time, it is dropping the Labour Market Impact Assessment requirement that used to gate those points. Immigration Minister Lena Diab announced the change on October 16, 2026. It takes effect November 3.

How the new Express Entry high-wage points work

The reform creates a new scoring factor called the Labour Market Integration Factor. It awards Comprehensive Ranking System points based on job offers or Canadian work experience in 186 higher-paying occupations. According to CIC News, the thresholds work on a sliding scale. A job offer paying at least twice the Canada-wide median wage for that occupation earns 100 points. One paying 1.5 times the median earns 70 points. One paying 1.3 times the median earns 50 points.

Toronto skyline representing candidates affected by the Express Entry high-wage points reform

Candidates can also earn points for Canadian work experience in those same high-wage occupations, up to 70 points. They can add up to 80 more points for the overall length of their Canadian work experience. The combined cap sits at 150 points. IRCC will apply whichever sub-factor, job offer or Canadian experience, produces the higher score for each individual candidate.

Why dropping the LMIA requirement is the bigger change

For years, a job offer only earned Express Entry points if the employer had secured a Labour Market Impact Assessment. That is a government review confirming no Canadian worker was available for the role. The new rules remove that requirement for job offer points under the Federal Skilled Worker Program and the Federal Skilled Trades Program. Candidates updating their profile with a job offer must still follow IRCC’s instructions on confirming their LMIA status. The points themselves, though, no longer depend on it.

That matters for a specific reason. Express Entry stopped awarding job offer points entirely in March 2025, when the government scrapped the previous arranged employment points system. This reform effectively brings job offer points back. This time, though, wage level decides the score, not a labor market test.

Employers, not just candidates, have a stake in this change too. Securing a Labour Market Impact Assessment used to add weeks or months to the hiring process and cost employers legal and administrative fees. Removing that requirement for Express Entry points lowers the practical barrier for Canadian employers trying to recruit skilled workers already living and working in the country.

Who actually benefits from this change

The reform targets higher earners specifically. Candidates with Canadian work experience in a qualifying high-wage occupation will see the new points land automatically in their existing profile. They do not need to do anything to trigger it. Someone with an active job offer carries more homework instead. They need to confirm their occupation falls under the right category in the National Occupational Classification system. IRCC sets wage thresholds using the highest median wage recorded in the past three years. It draws on Job Bank, the Labour Force Survey, and the census to calculate that figure.

Candidates should treat IRCC’s official Express Entry overview page as the authoritative source once the full occupation list and wage thresholds publish in detail. Third-party summaries, including this one, are a starting point, not a substitute for the government’s own numbers.

Candidates working in lower-wage occupations, even those with strong Canadian experience otherwise, will not see the same benefit from this specific reform. The sliding scale rewards wage level directly. Two candidates with similar years of Canadian experience could see very different point totals, depending solely on how their occupation’s wage compares to the national median.

A pause on invitations while scores reset

IRCC has paused Express Entry invitations while it recalculates scores under the new system. The government says that process may take up to two weeks. Candidates who already hold an invitation to apply get assessed differently. IRCC will judge them against whichever occupation list applied on the date they received that invitation. In practice, the new rules will not reach back and change decisions already in motion.

Immigration consultants have advised clients not to make any changes to their profile during the recalculation window unless IRCC specifically instructs them to. Submitting unnecessary updates while the system recalculates scores risks confusion over which rules apply to a given profile, consultants say. IRCC itself has not flagged this as a formal concern.

How this fits into Canada’s wider immigration shift

This reform does not stand alone. Separate IRCC data, released the same month, shows new temporary resident arrivals falling sharply this year. At the same time, the total population holding a work permit keeps growing. Read together, the two trends point in one direction. Canada’s system is trying to be more selective about who it lets in as a new arrival. It is not simply letting in fewer people across every category at once.

What applicants are already saying online

Immigration forums and social media groups focused on Express Entry lit up within hours of the October 16 announcement, with mixed reactions. Candidates already working in high-wage Canadian jobs welcomed the change openly. Others worried the reform narrows their path further. That concern was sharpest among those without a Canadian job offer or local work history, after a string of earlier tightening measures throughout 2025 and 2026.

What happens next for Express Entry candidates

Once invitations resume, expect a noticeable shift in who gets selected. Candidates with high-wage Canadian job offers or work experience should see their relative standing improve. That is a real shift away from candidates relying mainly on language scores or education alone. Anyone currently in the pool should check now whether their profile’s occupation classification matches one of the 186 listed occupations. That single detail could be worth tens of additional points once scores recalculate.

For more on Canada’s recent Express Entry activity, see Tamara News’ coverage of the French-language Express Entry draw and the Canadian Experience Class draw.

25 Oct 2026
Gold medal in a presentation case representing the Nobel Prize economics 2026 awarded to Hall and Woodford

Two Economists Just Won the Nobel Prize for Explaining Why Central Banks Do What They Do

Categories Business, World

The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences awarded the 2026 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences to Robert E. Hall of Stanford University and Michael Woodford of Columbia University on October 12, 2026. The honor recognizes decades of work on how governments and central banks can stabilize a volatile economy. The Nobel Prize economics 2026 announcement recognized research that sits underneath much of how modern central banks actually operate.

What the Nobel Prize economics 2026 recognized

Hall and Woodford built much of the theoretical foundation for stabilization policy. That branch of economics studies how to smooth out booms and busts. Left unchecked, those swings would otherwise whipsaw employment and prices. According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, their combined body of work spans several areas. It covers how central banks should set interest rates. It covers how credible commitments about future policy shape current behavior. It also covers how to think about an economy’s capacity to grow without overheating.

City financial skyline reflecting the global economic backdrop behind the Nobel Prize economics 2026 award

Woodford in particular is closely associated with research on forward guidance. That term describes a central bank’s public commitment about its future actions. Woodford treated it as a policy tool in its own right. He separated it from the interest rate decision made at any single meeting.

Hall’s research extended beyond stabilization theory into measuring how efficiently an economy uses its resources. That body of work helped economists separate temporary slowdowns from more permanent declines in an economy’s underlying capacity. Distinguishing between the two matters enormously for policy. A central bank reacting to a temporary slowdown as if it were permanent risks setting interest rates wrong for years.

Why the Nobel Prize economics 2026 timing feels pointed

The announcement landed as central banks around the world are managing a genuinely difficult stretch. Inflation remains elevated. A geopolitical shock to energy markets, tied to tensions around Iran, has pushed oil prices higher. An AI investment boom is reshaping growth unevenly across countries at the same time. The International Monetary Fund’s own October 2026 forecast added to that picture. It described global growth as increasingly concentrated in a small number of economies. Inflation, the IMF said, is projected to rise rather than ease next year.

That backdrop turns stabilization policy into more than an academic exercise. It sits close to the daily job description of officials at the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. Their counterparts worldwide face the same pressure right now.

The academy’s own framing

The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences has a clear pattern in how it awards the economics prize. It tends to recognize work that shaped real institutional practice, not just theory confined to academic journals. Al Jazeera’s coverage of the announcement noted that both laureates are American economists. That continues a long pattern of U.S.-based researchers dominating the prize’s recent history.

How this connects to today’s interest rate decisions

Hall and Woodford’s work does not dictate what any single central bank meeting decides. It shapes the intellectual toolkit officials bring into the room instead. Modern central bank statements spend as much time describing future intentions as they do announcing the current rate move. Woodford’s research on forward guidance is a big part of why that habit exists. The U.S. Federal Reserve is heading into its own October policy meeting soon. The tools Woodford helped formalize remain part of the standard playbook being applied there, and at central banks elsewhere.

Forward guidance, the specific tool most associated with Woodford’s research, works partly through expectations rather than through the rate change itself. If markets believe a central bank will keep rates low for an extended period, borrowing costs across the economy can fall even before any formal rate cut happens. That mechanism, once a novel academic idea, is now a standard part of how major central banks communicate policy.

What the economics community is saying

Economists outside the laureates’ own universities have broadly welcomed the choice. Several have noted that stabilization theory has rarely felt more relevant. This year combines an energy shock with an AI-driven productivity surge, which is exactly the kind of mixed signal the theory was built to untangle. Other commentators have pointed to a longer pattern in how the prize committee operates. It tends to reward work with decades-long staying power rather than the latest academic fashion. Hall and Woodford’s research fits that pattern closely, since both built their core ideas decades before this year’s prize.

Some critics within academic economics have also noted the limits of stabilization theory. The framework assumes policymakers can credibly commit to future actions and that markets believe those commitments. Real-world politics does not always cooperate with that assumption, particularly when central bank independence faces political pressure, as it has in several countries in recent years.

A brief look at the laureates themselves

Hall has spent much of his career at Stanford, where his research also touched on measuring productivity and the business cycle more broadly. Woodford, based at Columbia, is best known within the field for formalizing how expectations about future policy feed back into present-day economic behavior. Both economists have advised or consulted for policy institutions over the years, which is part of why their theoretical work ended up shaping practice rather than staying confined to textbooks.

What happens next for the laureates and their field

Hall and Woodford will receive the prize at the formal Nobel ceremony later this year, alongside the other 2026 laureates. Expect renewed academic and policy interest in stabilization theory. Central banks are still grappling with how to respond to supply-side shocks, like an energy disruption. Many of the tools they are using were originally designed for ordinary demand-side downturns instead.

For more on how global growth and monetary policy are playing out this year, read Tamara News’ coverage of the IMF’s October 2026 growth forecast and the latest oil price outlook.

25 Oct 2026
Ministerial Direction 123

Australia’s Visa Character Test Tightens on 31 October

Categories Immigration, Visa Updates

Australia’s new Ministerial Direction 123 takes effect on 31 October 2026 and changes how decision-makers weigh character when they consider refusing or cancelling a visa. It replaces Direction 110. Law firm summaries say it lowers the future-risk threshold, moves a person’s ties to Australia down the list of considerations, and adds a hatred and extremism ground. It targets character decisions, not routine skilled or student applications.

Contents

What Direction 123 replaces

A ministerial direction tells decision-makers how to weigh factors when the law gives them discretion. According to Clark Hill’s September APAC recap, Direction 123 replaces Direction 110 for character decisions under sections 501 and 501CA of the Migration Act. Separate directions, 121 and 122, set processing priorities for skilled visas from 19 September 2026, and those are a different matter from this one.

The main changes

Clark Hill lists these changes: primary considerations fall from five to four, ties to Australia become a secondary consideration, a new hatred and extremism character ground is added at section 501(6)(baa), and the future-conduct threshold moves from “would” or “will” to “might”. The definition of domestic and family violence is broadened to cover image-based abuse, stalking and breaching court orders. The sentence-weighting carve-out is removed, and the impact on Australian business interests is no longer a listed consideration.

AHC Lawyers, in its comparison of Direction 123 and 110, makes the same points and argues the new threshold lowers the Department’s burden of proof. That view comes from a law firm’s marketing article rather than the text of the direction, and the article does not say how pending cases are treated. Read the direction itself on the Department of Home Affairs site or ask a registered migration agent.

Who is and is not affected

Direction 123 applies when a decision-maker is already considering refusal or cancellation on character grounds. A holder with no character concerns does not face a new test simply because the direction exists. The people most exposed are those who have received serious criminal sentences, family violence orders or other adverse findings, and long-term residents who previously relied on their family and community ties.

A worked example

Consider a hypothetical case. Diego, a Mexican welder on a skilled visa, has no criminal record and a clean history. Nothing in Direction 123 changes his application. A different visa holder who has lived in Australia for decades and receives a serious conviction would find that long residence now carries less weight than it did under Direction 110. The difference lies in the facts of the case, not the nationality.

What visa holders can do

Keep records of any police checks, court outcomes and orders, and disclose them accurately in every application. Misleading answers can cause more harm than the underlying issue. If you hold a visa and have any adverse history, get advice before your next application or renewal. For students affected by other recent changes, see our report on Australia’s 2 October student visa rules, and use the visa eligibility checker to compare routes.

Employers sponsoring staff should note that the direction concerns the individual visa holder, not the sponsor. Even so, a sponsored worker facing a character decision can lose work rights quickly, which affects the business. Both law firms stress that outcomes depend on the specific facts, and that decisions made before 31 October may be handled under the earlier direction, though the sources we read do not confirm transitional detail.

Direction 123 questions

When does Ministerial Direction 123 start?

31 October 2026, replacing Direction 110, according to Clark Hill and AHC Lawyers.

Does it change the rules for ordinary skilled visa applications?

No. It applies to character-based refusal and cancellation decisions, not to standard eligibility criteria.

What does the move from ‘would’ to ‘might’ mean?

Law firms say it lowers the threshold for deciding that a person may engage in unacceptable conduct in the future.

Are ties to Australia still considered?

Yes, but as a secondary rather than a primary consideration, according to the law-firm summaries.

What new ground does it add?

A hatred and extremism character ground under section 501(6)(baa), according to Clark Hill.

Where can I read the direction itself?

On the Department of Home Affairs website, or ask a registered migration agent.

Sources

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