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The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development trimmed its EBRD Africa growth outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa to 4.8% for 2026, down from an earlier 5.1% projection. The update, published September 24, 2026, pointed to higher oil prices, trade disruption linked to the Middle East conflict, and mounting debt-servicing costs across the region. It flagged Nigeria as one of the few economies whose forecast held steady, thanks to domestic reforms.

What the EBRD Africa growth outlook actually shows

The EBRD’s downgrade covers Sub-Saharan Africa broadly. It moderates growth to 4.8% in 2026 and 4.7% in 2027, both below the bank’s previous estimates. The bank’s economists cited a familiar mix of pressures. Energy costs have climbed since the year’s Middle East disruptions. Investment flows into the region have weakened, and commodity price swings are hitting exporters unevenly. High debt-servicing costs stood out as a constraint. That leaves many governments with less room to cushion households or businesses against the slowdown.

Nigeria bucks the regional trend

Nigeria’s own forecast held at 4.2% growth for 2026, easing only slightly to 4.0% in 2027. The EBRD attributed that contrast directly to “economic reforms, investment activity and improved external balances.” That resilience places Nigeria alongside Benin, Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, which the bank noted have completed IMF programs this year. Benin, Kenya, Ghana and Nigeria all received sovereign credit rating upgrades in 2026 too. Those upgrades matter in practice. They typically lower the cost of borrowing on international markets, partially offsetting the regional headwinds the EBRD describes.

Why the slowdown is happening now

Much of the regional pressure traces back to global forces outside any single African government’s control. The wider Middle East conflict has disrupted trade routes and shipping costs this year. Oil-importing economies across the region have felt that directly through higher energy bills. Several currencies remain under pressure at the same time. Debt-servicing costs continue to eat into government budgets that would otherwise fund infrastructure or subsidies. The EBRD’s report frames this as a structural vulnerability, not a one-off shock, since many of these fiscal constraints predate this year’s specific disruptions.

What it means for businesses and investors

A cut from 5.1% to 4.8% is not a collapse. But it does confirm that momentum built earlier in the decade is cooling. Investors weighing exposure to Sub-Saharan African markets will likely watch one thing closely: the credit-rating trajectory in Nigeria, Kenya and Ghana, more than the headline regional number. Those upgrades signal improving fiscal management even as the broader region faces external pressure. Companies with supply chains touching the region should expect continued volatility in energy costs and currency movements through the rest of 2026.

What happens through the rest of 2026

The EBRD typically revisits its regional forecasts twice a year. The next formal update would arrive in the first half of 2027, unless conditions shift sharply enough to warrant an interim revision. In the meantime, expect individual country reports from the IMF and World Bank to add more granular detail. Those reports should show how the debt-servicing burden and Middle East-linked trade disruption are playing out market by market. Oil importers most exposed to higher energy costs will likely feature most.

Frequently asked questions

What is the new EBRD Africa growth outlook for 2026?

The EBRD forecasts Sub-Saharan Africa will grow 4.8% in 2026, down from an earlier 5.1% projection, easing further to 4.7% in 2027.

Why did the EBRD cut its forecast?

The bank cited higher energy costs, trade disruption tied to the Middle East conflict, and weaker investment. High debt-servicing costs are also constraining government budgets across the region.

Is Nigeria affected by the downgrade?

Nigeria’s forecast held at 4.2% growth for 2026, which the EBRD attributed to domestic economic reforms, investment activity and improved external balances.

Which countries received credit rating upgrades in 2026?

Benin, Kenya, Ghana and Nigeria all received sovereign rating upgrades in 2026, according to the EBRD’s report.

When will the EBRD update this forecast again?

The bank typically revises its regional outlook twice a year. The next scheduled update would come in the first half of 2027, absent a major shift in conditions.

How the EBRD’s forecasts get used

The EBRD is one of several multilateral lenders, alongside the IMF and World Bank, whose regional forecasts matter well beyond the report itself. Sovereign investors, credit-rating agencies and multinational companies use them directly when deciding where to allocate capital. A downgrade like this one does not by itself change any country’s credit rating. But it does shape the narrative investors carry into their own risk assessments. That matters most for economies without the kind of recent rating upgrades that Nigeria, Kenya, Ghana and Benin secured this year. Governments in the region often respond to these periodic downgrades by highlighting their own reform programs. Nigerian officials, for instance, have pointed to improved external balances as evidence their economy can outperform the regional trend.

More on the global economy this week

For more on the global economic backdrop shaping this outlook, see our reporting on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike and the bond-market selloff in Treasury yields.

Sources

• Businessday NG — Reforms cushion Nigeria as EBRD cuts Africa growth outlook. https://businessday.ng/business-economy/article/reforms-cushion-nigeria-as-ebrd-cuts-africa-growth-outlook/
• EBRD — EBRD forecasts slower growth in sub-Saharan Africa in 2026. https://www.ebrd.com/home/news-and-events/news/2026/ebrd-forecasts-slower-growth-in-sub-saharan-africa-in-2026.html

The 6th US Circuit Court of Appeals handed down a Kalshi prediction market ruling on September 25, 2026. It lets states regulate event-contract trading the same way they regulate gambling. The decision rejects Kalshi’s argument that federal oversight of its contracts preempts state gambling law. The Cincinnati-based court’s ruling immediately gives Ohio and Tennessee grounds to treat Kalshi’s sports and event contracts as regulated gambling activity.

What the Kalshi prediction market ruling decided

Kalshi operates as a federally regulated exchange under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. It argued that status meant individual states could not layer their own gambling rules on top of its contracts. The 6th Circuit disagreed. It found that states retain the authority to regulate event contracts that function like wagers on sports results and other outcomes. That holds regardless of federal exchange registration. The ruling does not shut Kalshi down. But it opens the door for state regulators in the 6th Circuit’s jurisdiction. They can require licensing, restrict certain contract types, or block the platform outright.

A split among the federal courts

The decision deepens a growing conflict between appeals courts. The 9th Circuit previously found Kalshi subject to Nevada’s gambling laws, aligning with Friday’s 6th Circuit outcome. The 3rd Circuit reached the opposite conclusion, ruling that New Jersey’s gambling statutes do not reach Kalshi’s contracts. Two circuits now sit on one side and a third on the other. Legal analysts say the Supreme Court may eventually need to step in. The question: are prediction markets federally exempt from state gambling oversight nationwide?

Why regulators are moving now

The timing is not coincidental. New York sued a Kalshi competitor, Polymarket, days before the 6th Circuit ruling, accusing it of running an unlicensed gambling operation. New York Governor Kathy Hochul said plainly that “by running an unlicensed gambling operation, Polymarket has done more than just knowingly violate state law.” Prediction markets have grown quickly over the past two years. Retail traders use them to bet on everything from elections to sports outcomes. State attorneys general and gaming commissions have grown more assertive in response. They increasingly treat that growth as a licensing and consumer-protection issue, not a novel financial product exempt from their reach.

What it means for traders and the industry

For everyday users, the immediate effect depends on where they live. Traders in Ohio and Tennessee could see new restrictions on which Kalshi contracts are available to them. That mirrors how online sports betting is already licensed state by state. The split rulings create genuine uncertainty for the broader prediction-market industry’s expansion plans. A platform now has to navigate different legal standards depending on which federal circuit a user’s state falls under. That holds until the Supreme Court steps in, or Congress writes a uniform federal standard.

What comes next for prediction markets

Kalshi has not said whether it will seek a rehearing or push directly for Supreme Court review. A formal certiorari petition, if filed, would take months to resolve. In the meantime, expect other states within the 6th Circuit’s reach to test similar arguments against Kalshi and rivals like Polymarket. Gaming regulators outside that reach are watching too. The New York case against Polymarket will be an early signal. It will show how aggressively states plan to use their gambling laws against this category of trading platform.

Frequently asked questions

What did the Kalshi prediction market ruling actually decide?

The 6th US Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that states can regulate Kalshi’s event contracts as gambling. It rejected the company’s argument that federal exchange registration preempts state oversight.

Which states are directly affected first?

Ohio and Tennessee, both within the 6th Circuit’s jurisdiction, can now apply their gambling laws to Kalshi’s event contracts.

Does this ruling shut Kalshi down?

No. It lets affected states regulate or restrict specific contracts. Kalshi keeps operating in jurisdictions where courts or regulators have not imposed similar restrictions.

Why do different courts disagree on this?

The 9th Circuit sided with state regulation in a Nevada case, matching the 6th Circuit. The 3rd Circuit found New Jersey’s gambling law did not apply to Kalshi, creating a split that could draw Supreme Court review.

Is Polymarket involved in this ruling?

Not directly, but New York sued Polymarket days earlier over similar unlicensed-gambling allegations, showing regulators are pursuing multiple prediction-market platforms at once.

What should traders on these platforms expect?

Traders should expect the availability of certain contracts to vary by state as more regulators test their authority following this decision.

How prediction markets differ from traditional betting

Kalshi and its rivals describe their products as event contracts. These financial instruments pay out based on whether a defined event occurs. The companies market them more like derivatives than a sportsbook wager. Supporters of that framing say event contracts serve a genuine price-discovery function. They let traders hedge real-world risks tied to elections, economic data or corporate outcomes. A traditional bet does not offer that. Critics disagree, including several of the state regulators now asserting authority over these platforms. A contract paying out on a sports score, they argue, is a wager no matter how it is packaged. That is precisely the argument the 6th Circuit accepted this week.

More on this week’s markets

For more on this week’s financial-market backdrop, see our coverage of the stock market’s weekly gains and the bond-market rout in Treasury yields.

Sources

• Al Jazeera — US court rules against Kalshi, says states can regulate prediction markets. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/25/us-court-rules-against-kalshi-says-states-can-regulate-prediction-markets
• CNBC — Appeals court rules states can regulate sports prediction markets. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/25/appeals-court-rules-states-can-regulate-sports-prediction-markets.html